North Atlantic Ocean Dynamics
The North Atlantic Ocean has its thumb on the climate system due to its transport of heat, freshwater, and carbon, among other quantities. To better understand how the North Atlantic Ocean inflences the Earth System, we compare ocean dynamics in global climate models to observation-based products, with a particular focus on the ocean's overturning circulation. We also design model experiments to test the impact of specific drivers on different parts of the North Atlantic's circulation and variability.
Ocean Temperature Extremes
Marine heatwaves - periods of prolonged extreme high temperatures - have been increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration in the past decade, sometimes with devastating impacts on ecosystems, fisheries, and local economies. We investigate the processes that contribute to marine heatwaves and marine cold spells, examining their representation in climate models and assessing their predictability.
Climate Predictions on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales
The ocean evolves more slowly than the atmosphere, which provides a source of predictability beyond those of weather forecasts. Such long-lived prediction skill can have great value, allowing long lead-time warnings for droughts or stormier-than-average weather. We investigate the sources of ocean-driven predictability on seasonal to interannual to decadal timescales, depending on the process and location in question. Our focus is on the predictability of ocean extremes and North Atlantic processes that drive predictability. We also investigate how climate model improvement leads to better climate forecasts.