A Range of Outcomes:
The Combined Effects of Natural and Anthropogenic Influences on Local Climate

Abstract: Global warming is indisputable, yet disentangling its effect from natural variability on local scales is challenging. In this lecture, I shall discuss the science of natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change and how they superimpose to produce the weather we actually experience. I will also show how natural variability introduces an unavoidable range of outcomes for local and regional climate projections over the coming decades, consistent with our scientific understanding of the climate system. I will also discuss related challenges for attributing climate changes in the recent past and for assessing Earth System Models.





About Speaker Dr. Clara Deser

Dr. Clara Deser is a Senior Scientist and former head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder CO. She has spent her career studying global climate variability and change in observations and Earth System models, with an emphasis on interactions among the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere. Recent projects include the role of internal variability in regional climate trends, the effects of projected Arctic sea ice loss on global climate, the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and modes of decadal-multidecadal climate variability in the Atlantic and Pacific. She pioneered the use of Earth System Model Large Ensemble Simulations to elucidate the combined influences of natural and human-induced contributions to climate variability and trends. Deser has co-authored over 200 peer-reviewed publications, and is a member of the US National Academy of Sciences, a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union and a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. She received her Ph.D in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Washington in 1989, and her B.S. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1982. She joined NCAR in 1997.