WEEKLY WEATHER AND CLIMATE NEWS
26-30 November 2018
Items of Interest:
- Second volume of latest national climate assessment report just released -- This past Friday, the U.S. Global Change Research Program that consists of thirteen U.S. government agencies released "Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States" of its 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4), which is a Congressionally mandated quadrennial report about how climate change is impacting the United States. This second volume of the NCA4 report follows the Climate Science Special Report, known as "Volume I of the Fourth National Climate Assessment," which was released in November 2017. The just-released second volume of the NCA4 report focuses on the impacts and risks associated with climate change for U.S. sectors (such as agriculture, health, transportation and energy) and regions of the nation. A detailed picture is presented of how communities across the country are already feeling the effects of climate change, together with what impacts U.S. residents could expect if drastic action were not taken to address climate change. Additional discussion and analysis will be forthcoming. [Union of Concerned Scientists Press Release]
- Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2018 Campaign for December commences -- The twelfth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2018 will commence this Thursday (29 November) and continue through Saturday, 8 December. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. These constellations are Perseus in the Northern Hemisphere and Grus for the Southern Hemisphere. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The first series in the 2019 campaign is scheduled for 29 December-7 January 2019. [GLOBE at Night]
- Beginning of meteorological winter season -- The winter meteorological season
in the Northern Hemisphere starts on Saturday (1 December). Recall that
climatologists and meteorologists have elected to use a standard three-month grouping to identify each meteorological season. Hence, the months of December, January and February are considered the winter meteorological season. You will note that the winter solstice, marking the day where the length of
daylight is least in the Northern Hemisphere is still three weeks away, falling on Friday, 21 December 2018. Since the lowest temperatures typically fall in mid to late January, the meteorological winter tends to be centered on the coldest time of the year in the Northern Hemisphere.
In addition, Friday (30 November) marks the end of the official 2018 hurricane seasons in the North Atlantic, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, along with the eastern and central North Pacific basins.
- The 2018 hurricane seasons reviewed -- With the end of the official 2018 hurricane season in
both the North Atlantic and North Pacific on Friday (30 November 2018), a quick review of this year's tropical cyclone statistics for the
official 2018 hurricane season has been made for both basins. [AMS
DataStreme Atmosphere]
For those who are interested in obtaining historic hurricane
information, the "Historical
Hurricanes Mapping & Analysis Tool" developed by NOAA
allows the search and display of detailed data for more than 6000
tropical cyclones in seven of the planet's major ocean basins based
upon a data set that runs from 1842 to 2017. Coastal population trends
are also available for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts of the United
States. - High-quality maps of December temperature and precipitation normals across US available -- The PRISM Climate Group at Oregon State University's website has prepared high-resolution maps depicting the normal maximum, minimum and precipitation totals for December and other months across the 48 coterminous United States for the current 1981-2010 climate normals interval. These maps, with a 800-meter resolution, were produced using the PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate mapping system.
- December weather calendar for a city near you -- The Midwestern Regional Climate Center maintains an interactive website that permits the public to produce a ready to print weather calendar for any given month of the year, such as December, at any of approximately 270 weather stations around the nation. (These stations are NOAA's ThreadEx stations.) The entries for each day of the month includes: Normal maximum temperature, normal minimum temperature, normal daily heating and cooling degree days, normal daily precipitation, record maximum temperature, record minimum temperature, and record daily precipitation; the current normals for 1981-2010.
- It's Sure Dark! -- Have you noticed
that the sun is setting early these days? During the first ten days of
December, many locations throughout the country will experience their
earliest sunset times of the year. The exact day for the earliest
sunset depends upon the latitude, so you may want to check the date in
your locale from the sunrise tables appearing in an on-line,
interactive service available for the entire
year at most cities in the United States. The reason for the
earliest sunsets occurring in early December rather than on the winter
solstice (during the evening hours of Friday, 21 December 2018) is
that the sun is not as precise a timekeeper as our watches. Because of
a combination of factors involved with Earth's elliptical orbit about
the sun and the tilt of Earth's spin axis with respect to the plane of
the ecliptic, the sun appears to "run fast" by as much as 15 minutes as
compared with clock time in November. However, with the approach of the
winter solstice and perihelion (the smallest earth-sun distance during late night hours of 2 January 2019), the apparent sun slows during
December and finally lags the clock by 12 minutes in February.
Consequently, a noticeable and welcome trend toward later sunsets can
be detected by the end of December, especially by those residents in
the northern part of the country. However, the latest sunrises occur at
most locales in early January, meaning that early risers will continue
seeing dark and dreary mornings for another month.
- "Coldest day of the year" is on the horizon -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) produced a set of "Coldest Day of the Year" maps for the contiguous United States, Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico showing the dates of the lowest daily minimum temperatures of the year as calculated from the 1981-2010 climate normals. Many places across the West will experience their lowest daily temperatures starting during the next two to three weeks in early December. On the other hand, some areas across the West will not reach their lowest daily temperatures of the year until late January. [NOAA NCEI News]
[Notes: (1.) According to the seasonal variations in the long-term average or "normal" temperatures, many locations across the nation not along the coasts typically have their lowest normal daily high and low temperatures during the third week of January, nearly one month after the winter solstice. However, areas across the West have their lowest temperatures during the month of December, with elevation becoming an influence.
(2.) For comparison purposes, check the corresponding NCEI map for the "Warmest Day of the Year" that shows the dates of occurrence of the highest maximum temperatures. EJH]
- First snow of season histories are available for several thousand US weather stations -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information has assembled an interactive map that allows the user to obtain the dates of the first measurable snowfall (0.1 inches or more) for several thousand weather stations across the United States (including Alaska) in the Global Historical Climatology Network that have at least 20 years of record. Clicking on a station location will provide not only the date of the first observed snowfall at that location, but the amount of this first snow and the first year of observation for that station. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
- SKYWARN™ recognition -- This Saturday
1 December 2018 (starting at 00Z or 7:00 EST PM on Friday night) has been
declared SKYWARN™
Recognition Day, a day in which the National Weather Service
and the American Radio Relay League celebrate the contributions made by
volunteer SKYWARN™ radio operators during the past year's Severe
Weather Operations.
- NOAA Tide Tables for 2019 are available -- NOAA's National Ocean Service has announced that the 2019 NOAA Tide Tables and Tidal Current Tables are now available. These annual tide predictions and tidal current predictions, which represent the 153rd edition, can be obtained online for US coastal stations; printed tide tables are also available.
[NOAA National Ocean Service News]
Three years ago, a narrative along with a timeline visualization of the evolution of the NOAA Tide Tables since the first tide tables for locations along the East Coast of the United States when first published by the US Coast Survey in 1853. The changes in the methods used to compute the tide tables over the last 150 years are also described. [NOAA National Ocean Service News]
Weather and Climate News Items:
- Eye on the tropics --- Several tropical cyclones were reported during the last week over the tropical waters of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres:
- In the North Indian Ocean basin:
Tropical Cyclone Gaja had weakened to a tropical depression at the start of last week as it traveled across the Arabian Sea after passing over southern India over the previous weekend. At the time Gaja was heading toward the west-northwest approximately 910 miles to the southeast of Masirah Island, Oman. Satellite imagery and additional information on Cyclone Gaja can be found on the NASA Hurricane Blog.
- The former Tropical Storm Bouchra, which had weakened to a post-tropical cyclone northwest of Cocos Island, Australia during the previous week, was seen to reform over last weekend. At the beginning of this past week, the reborn Bouchra was traveling toward the southwest as it was located nearly 800 miles to the southeast of Diego Garcia. After several days, the new Bouchra was torn apart by wind shear and ultimately disspated by midweek approximately 700 miles to the southeast of Diego Garcia. Satellite images and additional information on Tropical Cyclone Bouchrahe can be found on the NASA Hurricane Blog.
In the western North Pacific basin:
- The remnants of Tropical Storm Toraji traveled across southern sections of Vietnam on the Indochina Peninsula at the beginning of last week and then exited out over the Gulf of Thailand. These remnants intensified to become a tropical depression that eventually weakened during the second half of this past week approximately 400 miles to the west-southwest of Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. The NASA Hurricane Blog had additional information and a satellite image for Tropical Depression Toraji as it was over the Gulf of Thailand.
- Tropical Depression 33W (TD-33W), had developed at the start of last week over the waters of the Philippine Sea approximately 600 miles to the east of the southern Philippine island of Mindanao. By early Monday, TD-33W was 900 miles to the east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Traveling toward the west-northwest, TD-33W was expected to strengthen to become a tropical storm as it heads toward the southern Philippine Islands.
NASA Hurricane Blog https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/tag/33w-2018/
Tropical Storm 33W (Usagi)
NASA Hurricane Blog https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/tag/man-yi-2018/
https://blogs.nasa.gov/hurricanes/tag/toraji-2018/
Australian tropical cyclone season outlook issued -- Forecasters at the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology recently released an outlook for the upcoming 2018-19 Australian tropical cyclone season that typically begins in November and runs through April. These forecasters foresee a fewer number of tropical cyclones than average within each of the five regions that surround the continent. They base their outlook upon the status of ENSO over the preceding July to September, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and a survey of the suite of international outlook models. Therefore, their outlook for a lower than average tropical cyclone season is based upon the possible development of El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean and near average ocean temperatures to the north and east of Australia. [Australian Bureau of Meteorology]
Review of October 2018 global temperatures and sea ice cover -- Preliminary data analyzed by scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) indicated that the global combined land and ocean average surface temperature for October 2018 was 1.55 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average (1901-2000) for the month. Therefore, last month's global combined temperature was the second highest October temperature since global temperature records began in 1880, trailing the record highest October global combined temperature that was set in 2015 by 0.23 Fahrenheit degrees. When considered separately, the monthly average temperature over the global oceans for October 2018 was 1.30 Fahrenheit degrees above average. The monthly average October temperature of the land surface was 2.23 Fahrenheit degrees above average. Thus, the October 2018 temperatures over both the ocean and land surfaces ranked second in their respective records behind the record warm October 2015.
When considering the combined land-ocean global temperature for the year to date (January-October 2018), this ten-month temperature was the fourth highest global temperature for the first ten months of any year since 1880. [NOAA/NCEI State of the Climate]
A global map of Selected Significant Climate Anomalies and Events for October 2017 is available from NCEI.
According to satellite data collected by National Snow and Ice Data Center, the sea ice over the Arctic Ocean during October 2018 was the third smallest areal extent for any October since satellite-derived ice records began in 1979. The sea ice around Antarctica also was the fourth smallest October ice extent in the last 40 years.
The snow cover extent across North America in October 2018 was the second largest extent for October in 51 years of record. [NOAA/NCEI Global Snow & Ice]
An ENSO conference is held in Ecuador -- A staff member at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center recently posted a blog on the ClimateWatch Magazine describing her experiences attending the IV International Conference on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during mid-October in Guayaquil, Ecuador along with approximately 130 scientists from around the world. She discussed some topics presented at the conference, including ENSO in a warmer climate; the reasons for ENSO complexity; and the difficulties in predicting ENSO. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Wind forecasts are improved for the renewable energy industry -- NOAA and the U.S Department of Energy (DOE) have been conducting research designed to improve forecasts for wind energy firms by between 15 and 20 percent. In addition, these forecasts could improve wind forecasts across the entire nation. The NOAA-DOE research, identified as "Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2" (WFIP 2), examined the physics of wind in complex terrain in the Columbia River Gorge between Washington and Oregon, with numerous wind farms. WFIP 2 is leading to an increased understanding of physical processes such as stability, turbulence, and low-level jets that affect wind energy generation in regions of complex terrain, such as coastlines, mountains, and canyons. [NOAA Research News] An international global greenhouse gas information system is advanced -- Two weeks ago, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) hosted the first symposium and user summit of the Integrated Global Greenhouse Gas Information System (IG3IS) in Geneva, Switzerland. The aim of this three-day symposium was to bring together technical developers and key users from several different sectors to help inform and guide reductions in emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping greenhouse gases driving climate change. IG3IS will help support the Paris Agreement on climate change. [World Meteorological Organization Media Centre News]
Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations reach new record levels in 2017 -- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recently released its "WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 14: The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2017." This report describes the state of the heat-absorbing atmospheric greenhouse gases for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) based upon global observations through 2017. Carbon dioxide levels reached 405.5 parts per million (ppm) in 2017, a level not seen in 3-5 million years. In addition, concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide also rose, along with a resurgence of a potent greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance called CFC-11, which is regulated under the Montreal Protocol. WMO foresees no sign of a reversal in these trends, which are driving long-term climate change, sea level rise, ocean acidification and more extreme weather. [World Meteorological Organization Media Centre]
United Nations climate change conference to convene -- The twenty-fourth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 24) and the fourteenth session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP 14) is set to convene next Sunday (2 December 2018) in Katowice, Poland and run through Friday, 14 December. The key objective of this Katowice Climate Change Conference is to adopt the implementation guidelines of the Paris Climate Change Agreement, namely to hold the global average temperature to as close as possible to 1.5 degrees Celsius. [United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change COP 24]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA's National Weather Service, FAA and FEMA on
current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical
weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and
floods. [NOAA/NWS Daily Briefing]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]
Return to RealTime Weather Portal
Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2017, The American Meteorological Society.