WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

13-17 August 2018

ITEMS OF INTEREST

The "Dog Days" officially ended on 11 August, having begun the third day in July. Superstition has it that dogs tend to become mad during that time of the year. (The Weather Channel)
Scientists employ various methods to study ancient climates -- Paleoclimatologists, or scientists who study ancient climate conditions, employ a variety of chemical, biological and other physical techniques to extract meaningful information on Earth's climate before instrumental and written historical climate records became available. They find clues in proxy indicators for climate that may be buried in sediments at the bottom of the oceans and lakes, frozen in layers of glaciers and ice caps, preserved in coral reefs and in the rings of trees. NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (formerly National Climatic Data Center, or NCDC) maintains a Paleoclimatology Branch that represents the world's largest achieve of data from the current instrumental and historical era and from the ancient paleoclimate times. [NOAA NCEI News]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Explaining how costs of weather and climate disasters are calculated -- Scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) recently updated their explanation of how they calculate the costs incurred by the public from severe weather and climate events across the United States. These scientists are documenting and assessing the costs associated with hurricanes, drought, inland floods, severe local storms, wildfires, crop freeze events and winter storms. Input to their analysis is provided by a variety of public and private data sources. One of their products is the NCEI's list of U.S. billion-dollar disasters that dates back to 1980. As of early July, the list of events with losses exceeding $1 billion (CPI-Adjusted) each for the 1980-2018 span include 25 drought events, 29 flooding events, 9 freeze events, 99 severe storm events, 40 tropical cyclone events, 15 wildfire events, and 16 winter storm events. A mapping tool is available. [NOAA NCEI News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Record high sea level reached in 2017 -- One of the key points in the State of the Climate in 2017 recently released by the American Meteorological Society was the global mean sea level in 2017 being the highest in the satellite record dating back to 1993. As of 2017, the global mean sea level was approximately three inches higher than in 1993. This increase has not been uniform around the globe, with some areas having experienced a reduction in local sea level. Several factors contribute to global sea level rise: added water from meltwater off glaciers and ice sheets, shifts in ground- and surface water storage and volume expansion due to ocean warming. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Weather scientist answers questions about extreme rainfall events -- Dr. David Novak, Director of NOAA's Weather Prediction Center and an extreme weather expert, was recently interviewed about extreme rainfall events. He was asked to provide a better understanding as to why extreme rainfall events occur and how timely forecasts of these events matter. [NOAA NCEI News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Updated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion is released -- Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion late last week. They reported ENSO-neutral conditions continued through July 2018, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) found across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean. In addition, the atmospheric system remained close to average, suggestive of the continuation of an ENSO-neutral situation with neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevailing. (An El Niño is a "warm phase" event where above average SST values are found in the eastern equatorial Pacific, while a La Niña is a "cold phase" event with below-average SSTs in the eastern Pacific) Most of the prediction models used by the forecasters indicate a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through August or the remainder of Northern Hemisphere's meteorological summer, before the possible development of El Niño during boreal autumn. Therefore, forecasters give an approximately 60-percent chance of the formation of El Niño conditions during meteorological autumn in the Northern Hemisphere (September through November), with an increase to a 70 percent chance during the boreal winter season of 2018-2019. Therefore, the CPC's ENSO Alert System Status remains at El Niño Watch. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center] Note: The criteria used for CPC's ENSO Alert System is available.
An entertaining ENSO blog was written by a contractor with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center that explains why CPC and IRI forecasters are anticipating the transition from the current ENSO-neutral conditions to El Niño conditions during boreal autumn and winter, which constitute the remainder of 2018. She notes that sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific during the last month were close to the long-term averages, indicating the ENSO-neutral conditions, but the ocean is warming underneath the surface. She also explains that the atmospheric circulation along the Equator, which is known as the Walker Circulation, could change in the next several weeks to cause a situation that would favor El Niño during the remainder of the year. [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Forecasters with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently issued an updated ENSO forecast from a Southern Hemisphere perspective. They reported continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through July. Since they foresee development of El Niño conditions during El Niño during austral spring and continuing into austral summer (or the remainder of the calendar year), the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status remains at "El Niño Watch". [Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology]
Updated 2018 NOAA Atlantic hurricane outlook is released -- Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook for 2018, in which they decreased the number of predicted named tropical cyclones for the North Atlantic Basin (including the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico) from their initial seasonal outlook that they made in May. Specifically, they are now predicting a 60-percent chance of nine to thirteen named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms with sustained surface winds of at least 39 mph), as compared with their earlier outlook of a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named systems. They also currently envision between four and seven hurricanes (with maximum sustained surface winds of 74 mph or higher) along with as many as two major hurricanes (Category 3 hurricanes or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale with winds of at least 111 mph). This updated outlook represents decreases in their earlier forecasts of five to nine hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes. At the same time, the CPC forecasters indicated the likelihood of a near-normal season is now at 30 percent, while the chance of an above-normal season has dropped to 10 percent. For reference, long-term statistics show that an average Atlantic season consists of 12 named tropical cyclones and the six hurricanes that normally form during each year. Three of these hurricanes typically become major hurricanes. As of the early August, the Atlantic basin has experienced two tropical storms (Alberto and Debby) and two hurricanes (Beryl and Chris) so far during 2018.
The CPC forecasters claim that the increased likelihood of below average tropical cyclone activity across the Atlantic basin is due to several factors that include more unfavorable conditions. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are lower than average, along with a combination of stronger vertical wind shear (changes in the wind speed and/or direction with altitude), drier air and increased atmospheric stability in the region where tropical cyclones develop. In addition, CPC also updated its El Niño outlook (see previous entry) noting an increased likelihood of El Niño conditions during the next several months, which correspond to the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season; El Niño conditions tend to suppress tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin. [NOAA News]
One week ago, Dr. Philip Klotzbach and associates at Colorado State University issued their updated Atlantic hurricane forecast was issued by in which they predicted a total of 12 named tropical cyclones for the entire 2018 season, including five hurricanes. The forecasters also anticipated one major hurricane and a below-average probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the coasts of the continental United States and the islands in the Caribbean. [The Tropical Meteorology Project]
New forecast tool designed to improve flash flood warnings -- Scientists at NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory have developed a new forecasting tool called FLASH (Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs Project) designed to help National Weather Service forecasters better predict the occurrence and timing of flash flooding events. FLASH combines real-time rainfall estimates from multiple weather radar units with real-time surface models involving the type of surfaces where rain is falling to create a highly detailed forecast for when specific rivers and streams will flood. [NOAA NCEI News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Study made of impact of solar activity during a hurricane emergency -- Scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, NOAA’s Space Weather Center and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology have been studying the occurrence of solar activity and a category 5 hurricanane during the first week of September 2017, when overlapping and seemingly coincidental events brought about severe consequences especially on communications during an emergency. The timing of the solar activity was bad as it increased the vulnerability of several Caribbean communities. [NOAA NCEI News]
Data from DART® buoys help in tsunami preparedness -- Since 2001, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information has been building an archive of ocean change data collected by the fleet of 39 instrumented buoys called DART® (Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis) and from coastal tide gauge stations. These ocean change data can be used by researchers to improve coastal resiliency to tsunamis. The DART® buoys are equipped with bottom pressure recorders that monitor those wave changes, such as those associated with a tsunami, that may indicate a hazard. [NOAA NCEI News]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Historical Events:

13 August 1991...The first rainfall recorded on this date in Stockton, CA since weather records began in 1906, when 0.05 inches of rain fell. (The Weather Doctor)
13-14 August 1987...Slow-moving thunderstorms deluged northern and western suburbs of Chicago, IL with torrential rains. O'Hare Airport reported 9.35 inches in 18 hours, easily exceeding the previous 24-hour record of 6.24 inches. The airport was closed due to extensive flooding, the first time ever for a non-winter event. Flooding over a five-day period resulted in 221 million dollars damage. It was Chicago's worst flash flood event, particularly for northern and western sections of the city. Kennedy Expressway became a footpath for thousands of travelers to O'Hare Airport as roads were closed. The heavy rains swelled the Des Plaines River above flood stage, and many persons had to be rescued from stalled vehicles on flooded roads. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel) (Intellicast)
14 August 1936...Temperatures across much of eastern Kansas and western Missouri soared above 110 degrees. Kansas City, MO hit an all-time record high of 113 degrees. It was one of sixteen consecutive days of 100-degree heat for Kansas City. During that summer there were a record 53 days of 100-degree heat, and during the three summer months Kansas City received just 1.12 inches of rain. (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)
14-17 August 2003...Residents of Bismarck, ND wilted under a record string of four consecutive days with temperatures greater than 100 degrees. (The Weather Doctor)
15 August 1946...Saint Louis, MO was deluged with a record 8.78 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)
15 August 1995...Apalachicola, FL soared to 103 degrees to set all-time high temperature. (Intellicast)
15 August 2004...The weather station at Yakutat, AK reported its all-time maximum temperature: 88 degrees. (The Weather Doctor)
16 August 1909...A dry spell began in San Bernardino County of southern California that lasted until the 6th of May in 1912, a stretch of 994 days! Another dry spell, lasting 767 days, then began in October of 1912. (The Weather Channel)
17 August 1885...Amos, CA hit 130 degrees to set the unofficial August U.S. high temperature record. (Intellicast)
18 August 1924...A record August rainfall for the United Kingdom occurred when 9.4 inches deluged Cannington (Somerset) England. (The Weather Doctor)
18 August 1927...Pressure in unnamed tropical storm fell to 887 millibars (26.18 inches of mercury) over the Pacific Ocean east of Luzon in the Philippines, one of the lowest surface measurements on record. (The Weather Doctor)
18 August 1931: The Yangtze River in China peaked during a horrible flood that killed 3.7 million people directly and indirectly over the next several months. This was perhaps the worst natural disaster of the 20th century. (National Weather Service files)
18-19 August 1935...The temperature soared to record high levels in each of the Maritime Provinces, with a 98-degree reading at Charlottetown, Prince Edward Island, 101 degrees in Collegeville, Nova Scotia and 103 degrees in Rexton, New Brunswick. (The Weather Doctor)
18 August 1936...Iowa had its hottest ever August day with the average high temperature for 113 stations being 106.5 degrees Fahrenheit. (Intellicast)
18-19 August 2007...A cooperative observer near Hokah in southeastern Minnesota recorded 15.10 inches of rain, establishing a new 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the Gopher State. (NCDC)
19 August 1939...Tuckerton, NJ received 14.81 inches of rain, which established a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the Garden State. (NCDC)
19 August 1955...Rains from tropical Storm Diane fell on ground saturated from Tropical Storm Connie a week before. Westfield, MA recorded 18.15 inches in 24 hours, to set a statewide record for the Bay State, while the 24-hour precipitation record for the Nutmeg State was set at Burlington, CT with 12.77 inches. Extreme flooding occurred in all of New England. (Intellicast)
19 August 1960...The heaviest recorded 24-hour precipitation accumulation to date for the Arctic drenched Mould Bay, Northwest Territories with 1.88 inches of rain. (The Weather Doctor)
19 August 1969..."Never say die" Camille let loose a cloudburst in Virginia resulting in flash floods and landslides that killed 151 persons and cause 140 million dollars damage. Massies Hill in Nelson County, Virginia received an estimated 27 inches of rain in 24 hours. This amount is an unofficial record for the state, while the official 24-hour maximum precipitation record is 14.28 inches at Williamsburg on 16 September 1999. (David Ludlum) (NCDC)
19 August 1986...The temperature at San Antonio, TX soared to an all-time record high of 108 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders 1987)
19 August 2010...A 2-month long heat wave in Russia ended on this date. During the heat wave daily maximum temperatures in Moscow were as much as 27 degrees above average. The heat wave caused 15,000 deaths, 600 wildfires, and $15 billion loss of economic growth. (National Weather Service files)

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