WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

18-22 June 2018

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Happy Summer Solstice! The summer solstice will occur early Thursday morning (officially, 21 June 2018 at 1007 Z, or 6:07 AM EDT on the 21st, 5:07 AM CDT, etc.). At that time, the earth's spin axis is oriented such that the sun appears to be the farthest north in the local sky of most earth-bound observers. While most of us consider this event to be the start of astronomical summer, the British call the day the "Midsummer Day", as the apparent sun will begin its southward descent again. For essentially all locations in the Northern Hemisphere, daylight on Thursday will be the longest and the night will be the shortest of the year. Starting Friday, the length of darkness will begin to increase as we head toward the winter solstice on 21 December 2018 at 2223 Z. However, because the sun is not as perfect a time-keeper as a clock, the latest sunsets of the year at many mid-latitude locations will continue through about the first week of July -- a consequence of the earth being near aphelion (on 6 July 2018) and the apparent sun moving across the sky well to the north of the celestial equator.
World Hydrography Day celebration -- The International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) will celebrate its annual World Hydrography Day on Thursday, 21 June 2018, the 97th-anniversary date on which the IHO was created in 1921. The theme for this year's celebration is "Bathymetry - the foundation for sustainable seas, oceans and waterways," which is intended to focus the public's awareness that a better understanding of the depth and shape of the seafloor is key to the success of all human activities in, on or under the sea. [International Hydrographic Organization]
Watching for high ocean tides along nation's coasts this summer -- The NOAA National Ocean Service recently released its High Tide Bulletin for Summer 2018, which provides information on when higher than average astronomical tides can be expected along the nation's Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific coasts during the three months of June through August that constitutes the Northern Hemisphere's meteorological summer. During the past week (especially between 12 and 17 June) higher than average astronomical tides were expected along the Atlantic Coast, running from Maine southward to Florida's East Coast, and for the Pacific Coast, stretching from Washington southward to California. Higher than average tides were also expected surrounding Hawaii and the US Pacific Islands. A new moon that occurred last Wednesday (13 June), coupled with lunar perigee (when the Moon is closest to Earth) that occurred slightly more than 24 hours later (on Thursday) was responsible for the perigean spring tide that creates higher than normal high tides. Furthermore, tides should tend to increase along most of the coasts during this week approaching the time of the Northern Hemisphere's summer solstice (this Thursday), due to the position of the Sun relative to the Earth's equator. [NOAA National Ocean Service News]

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Nation's May drought report -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has posted its May 2018 drought Nation's drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately 20 percent of the contiguous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of May, while three percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
A map generated by the National Drought Mitigation Center for the U.S. Drought Monitor near the end of the first week of June reveals the extent of the persistent drought across the American Southwest, centered on the Four Corners states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah). The drought categories displayed on the map are determined from five key indicators (involving Palmer Drought Severity Index, a soil moisture model, streamflow, and precipitation); drought impacts; and local reports from more than 350 expert observers around the nation. A second map shows the subsurface soil moisture anomaly at the start of June generated by data collected by NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission (SMAP), a satellite with a radiometer instrument that measures the water content within the top two inches of soil. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Report made on recurrent "nuisance" coastal flooding across nation during 2017 -- Scientists from NOAA's Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services and from NCEI recently prepared an annual report entitled "2017 State of U.S. High Tide Flooding and a 2018 Outlook" that provides a review of the state of recurrent coastal tidal flooding in the U.S. considered "nuisance flooding." Nuisance flooding is defined as a situation when a water level measured at a NOAA water level gauge exceeds the local elevation threshold for minor impacts. The report indicates that in the 2017 meteorological year running from May 2017 through April 2018 the nationwide average number of high tide flooding days was the highest measured at 98 NOAA tide gauges, with a record of six flood days. In addition, more than 25 percent of the coastal locations tied or set new individual records for high tide flood days, with the most prevalent flooding found along the Northeast Atlantic and Western Gulf of Mexico Coasts. All-time records for annual-flood days were broken in 2017 at five cities (Boston, MA; Atlantic City, NJ; Sandy Hook, NJ; Sabine Pass, TX; and Galveston, TX), the result of active nor’easter and hurricane seasons and sea level rise. The portion of the report focusing upon the outlook for this upcoming year ending in April 2019 indicates that the frequency of daily flooding is expected to increase because of anticipated El Niño conditions and from long-term sea level rise trends. The forecasters envision that their projected increase in high tide flooding in 2018 may be as much as 60 percent higher across U.S. coastlines as compared to typical flooding approximately 20 years ago. [NOAA News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

World Ocean Database is a treasure trove of information on the oceans -- NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) through its Ocean Climate Laboratory is a major player in the development and maintenance of the World Ocean Database (WOD) that contains records about the ocean as far back as the ship logs and records of British Naval explorer Capt. James Cook in 1772. The archived digital data that can be accessed from WOD provide a good source of quality-controlled historical ocean profile data to the public as well as researchers in oceanography, meteorology, and climatology. The most recent version of this database, identified as the World Ocean Database 2013 (WOD13), contains a full set of quality controlled data that was used to create World Ocean Atlas 2013 (WOA13) and all updates to the database (April 2013 to present) with only initial quality control. The data, archived by NCEI, provide a broad array of records of temperature, salinity, nutrients, plankton, pH, and oxygen data, as well as several other oceanic and atmospheric variables. Availability of these WOD data has been expanded recently through cooperation with the International Oceanographic Data Exchange of UNESCO. [NOAA NCEI News]
Team of U.S. and Indian scientists making oceanic and atmospheric observations in Indian Ocean -- During the last week a team of 20 NOAA scientists traveled to Goa, India to participate in the Second India-United States Colloquium on Earth Observations and Sciences for Society and Economy, and work with India's leading ocean, atmosphere, and fisheries scientists. During the last decade, the collaboration has resulted in the deployment of instrumented buoys as part of the "Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA)" that was designed to study the Indian Ocean’s role in the monsoons. These buoys have helped provide data on the Madden-Julian Oscillation that NOAA relies on for U.S. weather prediction with a two- to four-week lead time. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE FORCING

North-south transect of the Atlantic Ocean by repeated ship cruises show changes of anthropogenic carbon in ocean column since the 1980s -- Approximately one third of the carbon dioxide released by fossil fuel burning ultimately is sequestered in the global ocean. Over the last four decades, research cruises have been undertaken along a north-south transect in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean from Iceland southward to the Southern Ocean to measure the concentration of carbon dioxide generated by fossil fuel combustion absorbed in the Atlantic. Recent analysis of the data reveals the largest increases in absorbed carbon since the late 1980s have been in near surface waters of the middle and polar latitudes of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with smaller increases in tropical waters. Some of the largest increases were in the Northern Hemisphere, where the increases extended downward to a greater depth in the column. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

El Niño watch is posted with updated El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion -- Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) released their monthly El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion this past week. They reported an ENSO-neutral situation continued through May 2018, as sea surface temperatures (SST) were close to average across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. However, some warming of the subsurface waters have occurred. The other oceanic and atmospheric conditions also close to average, meaning a continuation of the ENSO-neutral status with neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions prevailing. The majority of the CPC and IRI models tend to favor a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of Northern Hemisphere meteorological summer (June, July and August), while El Niño conditions were likely to develop during boreal autumn. The forecasters gave the chance for an El Niño during the fall at 50 percent, followed by an approximately 65 percent chance for development during Northern Hemisphere winter of 2018-19. Consequently, the CPC/IRI forecasters issued an El Niño watch as part of its ENSO Alert System Status. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]
An ENSO blog was written by a contractor with CPC describing the ENSO-neutral conditions that have been found across the Pacific in May. why CPC and IRI forecasters are anticipating a continuation of through this Northern Hemisphere summer. She describes how the various models used by the forecasters are tending to suggest that a transition toward El Niño conditions were possible during this upcoming meteorological autumn season in the Northern Hemisphere (September through November). [NOAA Climate.gov News]
Forecasters with the Australian Bureau of Meteorology recently issued their updated ENSO forecast, in which they reported that oceanic and atmospheric conditions during the last month suggested continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions. They noted that most of the international climate models that they use were indicating a continuation of ENSO-neutral conditions through Southern Hemisphere winter (June, July and August), with three of the eight models suggesting development of a possible El Niño during austral spring (September-November). Consequently, the Australian forecasters are keeping the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status as "Inactive" at this time. [Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology]
Hurricane outlook issued for the eastern North Pacific -- Several weeks ago, NOAA released its outlook for the upcoming 2018 hurricane season in the Eastern North Pacific basin (east of 140 degrees West longitude). The outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center suggests an 80% chance of a near-average or above-average season. Specifically, the chance of an above-average season is most likely (45 percent chance), while the chance of a near-average season has been set at 35 percent. The forecasters give a 20% chance of a below-average season. This outlook would call for a 70-percent chance of the formation of between 14 and 20 named tropical cyclones (hurricanes or tropical storms), with seven to twelve hurricanes. Between three and seven major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) were also envisioned. These anticipated numbers compare with the 30-year (1981-2010) averages of 15 named tropical cyclones per year that include eight hurricanes and as many as four major hurricanes. The forecasters base their outlook upon their feeling of a greater likelihood of ENSO-neutral conditions than El Niño throughout the hurricane season. In addition, they noted that near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures were to persist in the main hurricane formation region in the eastern waters of the tropical North Pacific. [NOAA Climate Prediction Center]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

Seasonal allergies responding to changing climate -- A researcher at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences in Boulder, CO wrote an article for the ClimateWatch Magazine that describes how the seasonal allergies experienced by nearly a third of the world's human population can be influenced by climate. She reports that numerous studies indicate that allergies could be worsening as the climate warms because pollen seasons are becoming longer, and more pollen is being produced. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

Moon has helped lengthen Earth’s day over time -- Scientists from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory recently reported on their reconstruction of the history of the solar system characteristics, including the distance between the Earth and Moon over the last billion years. They used a statistical method that links astronomical theory with geological observation captured in the rock record to extend the record of ancient climate change associated with the Milankovitch cycles billions of years ago during Earth’s geologic past. (Milankovitch cycles are the periodic variations in the orbital eccentricity, axial tilt and precession of the equinox over thousands of years that are responsible for cyclic variations in solar radiation intercepted by Earth, which are responsible for rhythmic changes in global climate, such as the Ice Ages during the Pleistocene.) One of their discoveries was finding that a day on Earth approximately 1.4 billion years ago lasted just over 18 hours. This shorter day was caused in part because the Moon was closer than at present, which changed the way the Earth spun around its axis. [University of Wisconsin-Madison News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Historical Events:

18 June 1991...Atlanta, GA set a new record for the amount of the rain in one hour as 3.47 inches fell between 6:52 and 7:52 PM EDT. (Intellicast)
19 June 240 BC...On the summer solstice, Eratosthenes estimated the circumference of the Earth using two sticks.
19 June 2004...Annette Island, AK set an all-time record high temperature of 93 degrees. Since record keeping began in 1941, Annette Island has seen 90-degree temperatures four times.
(National Weather Service files)
20 June 1921...Circle, MT received 11.50 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state. The town of Circle received a total of 16.79 inches of rain that month to establish a rainfall record for any town in Montana for any month of the year. (The Weather Channel)
20 June 1970...Norway's hottest day on record occurred, as the temperature at Nesbyen, Norway peaked at 96.1 degrees. (The Weather Doctor)
20 June 2000...The town of Barrow on Alaska's North Slope experienced its first recorded thunderstorm, which dropped 0.16 inches (4.1 mm) of rain in just a couple minutes. (The Weather Doctor)
21 June 1942...The temperature at Tirat Tsvi, Israel reached 129 degrees, the highest temperature ever recorded in Asia. (The Weather Doctor)
22 June 1947...Heavy rains deluged Holt, MO as a 12 inches of rain fell in 42 minutes, still a world's record rainfall rate for the fastest foot of rain accumulation. (The Weather Doctor)
22 June 1987...Thunderstorms in New York State produced 5.01 inches of rain in 24 hours at Buffalo, an all-time record for that location.
The temperature at Fairbanks, AK soared to 92 degrees, establishing a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
22 June 1988...Tucson, AZ reported an all-time record high of 114 degrees, surpassing the previous record of 112 degrees established a day earlier. Highs of 98 degrees at Pittsburgh, PA and 100 degrees at Baltimore, MD tied records for the month of June. (The National Weather Summary)
22 June 2003...The largest recorded hailstone in the United States fell on Aurora, NE. The diameter of this hailstone was 7 inches, and its circumference was 18.75 inches. (Northern Indiana NWSFO) The National Weather Service reported this hailstone to be the second largest ever documented in the U.S. by weight, and the largest by size at that time. Currently, the world's largest hailstone is recognized to be 8 inches in diameter and 1.9375 lbs. that was produced from storms in South Dakota on 23 July 2010. (National Weather Service files)
The mercury peaked at 95 degrees in the northern community of Moosonee, Ontario, the hottest June day ever recorded here. (The Weather Doctor)
23 June 1902...The temperature at Volcano Springs, CA soared to 129 degrees to set a June record high temperature for the U.S. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders)
23 June 1982...The temperature fell to all-time record low of 117 degrees below zero for Antarctica's South Pole Weather Station. (The Weather Doctor)
24 June 1946...Mellen, WI received 11.72 inches of rain, setting a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the Badger State. (NCDC)
24 June 1972...Paradise Ranger Station in Washington's Rainier National Park had 4.4 inches of snow on this day. This snowfall turned out to be the last for the 1971-72 season and brought the seasonal total to 1122 inches -- a new single season snowfall record for the U.S. at that time. (Intellicast)
24 June 1988...Forty-three cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Valentine, NE reported an all-time record high of 110 degrees, and highs of 102 degrees at Casper, WY, 103 degrees at Reno, NV, and 106 degrees at Winnemucca, NV were records for the month of June. Highs of 98 degrees at Logan, UT and 109 degrees at Rapid City, SD equaled June records. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

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