WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

4-8 June 2018

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Worldwide GLOBE at Night 2018 Campaign for June commences -- The sixth in a series of GLOBE at Night citizen-science campaigns for 2018 will commence this Monday (4 June) and continue through Wednesday, 13 June. GLOBE at Night is a worldwide, hands-on science and education program designed to encourage citizen-scientists worldwide to record the brightness of their night sky by matching the appearance of a constellation with the seven magnitude/star charts of progressively fainter stars. These constellations are Hercules in the Northern Hemisphere and Crux for the Southern Hemisphere. Activity guides are also available. The GLOBE at night program is intended to raise public awareness of the impact of light pollution. The seventh series in the 2018 campaign is scheduled for 4-13 July 2018. [GLOBE at Night]
Celebrating National Ocean Month -- A Presidential Proclamation has designated June 2018 as National Ocean Month. NOAA's National Ocean Service has a web portal that provides links to a variety of websites containing facts, images and video designed to highlight both the beauty and importance of the nation's oceans and marine environment. [NOAA National Ocean Service]
Celebrating Capitol Hill Ocean Week -- The nation's premier annual conference examining current marine, coastal and Great Lakes policy issues is the Capitol Hill Ocean Week (CHOW), which is scheduled to run from Tuesday 5 June through Thursday 7 June in Washington, DC at the Ronald Reagan Building & International Trade Center. This year's themes for CHOW are: (1) Vision for our Ocean and Great Lakes; (2) Restoration of Marine and Great Lakes Ecosystems; (3) Our Changing Ocean; and (4) Working Together for Sustainable Waters. [NOAA National Marine Sanctuary Foundation Blog] or [National Marine Sanctuaries News]
World Environment Day -- This Tuesday, 5 June 2018, is World Environment Day (WED), a day that has been created by the United Nations in an effort to stimulate worldwide awareness of the environment and to enhance political attention and action. This observance was established initially by the UN General Assembly in 1972 to mark the opening of the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment. Various activities are being planned. This year's theme for World Environment Day is "Beat Plastic Pollution: If you can't reuse it, refuse it." The host country is India. [World Environment Day]
World Ocean Day is celebrated -- World Ocean Day or a "Celebration of the Sea" will be celebrated Friday, 8 June 2018 in an effort to increase public awareness and to foster public involvement in the management of the ocean and its resources. Although this date was created at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, it had not been officially recognized by the United Nations until 2009. This year's theme is Preventing plastic pollution and encouraging solutions for a healthy ocean. The main conservation focus will be on plastic pollution prevention and cleaning the ocean of marine litter. A partial listing is provided for events across the US and other nations that will celebrate World Ocean Day. [The Ocean Project]
Early Sunrise -- Within the next week, many locations in the continental United States will experienced the date of earliest sunrise. While the longest daylight at each locale in the Northern Hemisphere will occur in over two weeks on the summer solstice (early Thursday, 21 June 2018), the occurrence of earliest local sunrise occurs before this date because the apparent sun now "leads" the clock time. This time discrepancy, which now amounts to approximately 2 minutes, occurs because of a combination of factors that result from the earth moving more slowly in its elliptical orbit because the earth presently is near its farthest point from the sun (aphelion on 6 July 2018) and the effect of the tilt of the earth's spin axis (near the summer solstice). For reference, the latest sunsets of the year will occur later in June as the apparent sun slows and by the first week of July "lags" clock time by about 4 minutes.

CLIMATE MONITORING

Space weather data pouring in from new series of geosynchronous environmental satellites -- Scientists associated with the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information's Solar Terrestrial Physics Division have been collecting and archiving large quantities of data from several sensors onboard NOAA's GOES-East (or GOES-16) satellite that was launched in November 2016 as GOES-R before being renamed. GOES-16 was the first of four environmental satellites to be launched into geosynchronous orbit around the Earth as part of the nation's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R Series. GOES-S was launched in March 2018 and was renamed GOES-17; GOES-T and GOES-U are planned for launch within the next several years. Four space weather instruments were placed on GOES-16: the magnetometer (MAG), Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) particle detector; the Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI); and the Extreme Ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS) that are X-ray and extreme ultraviolet sensors. The space weather data collected from these sensors are used by forecasters at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center. [NOAA NCEI News]
Global crop forecasts advanced by satellite-derived soil moisture data -- Researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center have developed tools that can use soil moisture data collected by NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive mission (SMAP) satellite, the first of the agency's satellites to be dedicated to measuring the water content of soils. The tools are used by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service, which monitors global croplands and makes crop forecasts. SMAP data are available through USDA's Crop Explorer website, a clearinghouse for global agricultural growing conditions such as soil moisture, temperature, precipitation, and vegetation health. [NASA Earth Observatory]
National pollution emissions are tending to decrease more slowly -- A team of researchers including those from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NOAA and NASA recently reported that the concentrations of carbon monoxide and nitrogen oxide (NOx), two major air pollutants across the U.S. are not decreasing as rapidly as expected. They based their findings upon satellite data and advanced computer simulations. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CLIMATE FORCING

The study of extreme weather and climate events is being advanced -- Scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and their colleagues at various other research institutions are focusing upon understanding extreme weather and climate conditions as part of a new area of expertise that is called event attribution or attribution science. This field is focusing upon whether certain extreme events are tied to changes in climate. The climate scientists have adopted methods of research used in public health to understand weather events and climate. [NOAA NCEI News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Atlantic hurricane season outlook is updated -- At the end of May, Philip Klotzbach and fellow hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University, issued their updated June forecast for the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season that contained changes to their early April forecast. They changed their outlook for the number of named tropical cyclones (hurricanes and tropical storms with sustained surface winds of at least 39 mph) from 14 in their April outlook to 13 at the end of May because of the formation of Subtropical Storm Alberto over the Gulf of Mexico in late May; thus, the total seasonal forecast for named storms would remain the same as earlier envisioned. However, they reduced their number of anticipated hurricanes (maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher) from seven to six and their number of projected major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) would drop from three to two. A near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean is also anticipated. This update effectively changes the anticipation from slightly-above average activity to near average activity for the season. This change in their outlook is due to their anticipation that a significant El Niño would not develop during the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and that most of the North Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past two months. [The Tropical Storm Project]
One week ago, scientists with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center released their outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that indicates a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season in 2017. They foresee 10 to 16 named tropical cyclones, including five to nine of these tropical cyclones becoming hurricanes. As many as four of these hurricanes could become major hurricanes. [NOAA News]
Forecasters at the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office have recently produced their forecast of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season (June-November), which indicates near normal activity. These forecasters predict a 70-percent chance that 7 to 15 named tropical cyclones would form, with a most likely value of 11, or one less than the 1981-2010 average of 12. The forecasters feel that between four and eight hurricanes could form, with six being the most likely value, which equals the long-term average number. They base their estimates in part upon the calculated Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the number of storms and their combined strength. According to their forecasts, this upcoming season would have a most-likely ACE index of 105, which compares with 1981-2010 average ACE index of 103.
Canadian national seasonal outlook issued -- Forecasters with Environment Canada issued their outlooks for temperature and precipitation across Canada for the three months of June, July and August of 2018, which constitutes meteorological summer. The temperature outlook indicates that most of the provinces running from British Columbia eastward to the Maritimes should experience above normal (1981-2010) temperatures. In addition, Ellesmere Island in Canadian Arctic Archipelago could also have a warmer than average summer. Conversely, several sections of Canada extending from the Yukon Territory eastward to Labrador could have near normal temperatures for the next three months.
The Canadian precipitation outlook for summer 2018 indicates that several large areas of southern Canada could experience below average precipitation. one area with anticipated dry conditions would extend eastward along the U.S.-Canadian border from British Columbia and Alberta, while the other area would be centered over the Maritime Provinces. Above average summer precipitation was possible across widely scattered sections of central and northern Canada. Near average summer precipitation could occur elsewhere. [Note for comparisons and continuity with the three-month seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation generated for the continental United States and Alaska by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, one would need to use Environment Canada's probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation.]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Historical Events:

4 June 1871...The United States' 15-minute rainfall record was set in Galveston, TX at 3.95 inches as the season's first tropical storm came onshore. Galveston would be struck by another tropical storm just five days later. (National Weather Service files)
4-5 June 1908...Helena, MT was deluged with 3.67 inches of rain to establish their all-time 24-hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel)
5 June 1993...A strong, late season spring storm moved into California. The 0.76 inches of rain at Los Angeles set a new daily rainfall record for June. Lake Gregory was deluged with 3.24 inches of rain in 24 hours and a foot of snow fell at the Mammoth Mountain ski area. (Intellicast)
6 June 1912...The largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century occurred as Novarupta Volcano erupted in Alaska near Mt. Katmai. (National Weather Service files)
7 June 1816...A June snow punctuated the Year Without A Summer in the northeastern U.S. Danville, VT reported drifts of snow and sleet 20 inches deep. Flurries were observed as far south as Boston. .(National Weather Service files)
9 June 1966...Hurricane Alma made landfall over the eastern Florida Panhandle -- the earliest land falling hurricane on the U.S. mainland on record. (Intellicast)
6-10 June 1816...The temperature reached 92 degrees at Salem, MA during an early heat wave, but then plunged 49 degrees in 24 hours to commence the famous "year without a summer". Late season snow fell across New England and eastern Canada. The editor of the Bangor (ME) Register observed that individual snowflakes that fell on Bangor during the afternoon of the 6^th covered areas up to two inches in diameter. Snow fell near Quebec City, Quebec over a 5-day period accumulating to 12 inches with "drifts reaching the axel trees of carriages" during this infamous Year Without a Summer. The Montreal Gazette reported that this "Extraordinary Season" gave snow squalls to the city on the 6^th and 8^th. On the 7^th, a famous June snow fell in the northeastern U.S. Danville, VT reported drifts of snow and sleet twenty inches deep. The Highlands were white all day, and snow flurries were observed as far south as Boston MA. Waltham, MA reported a low temperature of 33 degrees and New Haven, CT had a low of 35 degrees (David Ludlum) (Intellicast) (The Weather Doctor) (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
6 June 1894...One of the greatest floods in U.S. history occurred as the Willamette River overflowed to inundate half of the business district of Portland, OR. (David Ludlum)
7 June 1972...Richmond, VA experienced its worst flood of record as rains from Hurricane Agnes pushed the water level at the city locks to a height of 36.5 feet, easily topping the previous record of thirty feet set in 1771. (The Weather Channel)
9 June 1988...The temperature at Del Rio, TX soared to an all-time record high of 112 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
9 June 1990...San Diego, CA set a new record rainfall amount on this date, as 0.38 inches of rain fell breaking the old record of 0.13 inches established in 1892. Moisture from the remains of Hurricane Boris was responsible for this rare rain event. (Intellicast)
10 June 1995...The temperature at Yakutat, AK soared to 87 degrees for its highest temperature on record. (Intellicast)

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