19-23 March 2018

ITEMS OF INTEREST

• Nominations can be made for "Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources" -- An award called the "Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources" will be awarded to as many as seven recipients (along with honorable mentions) in recognition of their outstanding efforts to increase the resilience of America's valuable living natural resources in a changing world. This award has been made available through the efforts of the Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies and an interagency group of federal, state, and tribal agencies that include NOAA and the US Departments of Interior and Agriculture. Individuals or groups can be nominated for this award through the mid-April 2018. [National Fish, Wildlife & Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy]
• Notice the Equinox -- The vernal equinox, which marks the commencement of astronomical spring, will occur late Tuesday morning (officially at 1615Z on 20 March 2018, or 12:15 PM EDT or 11:15 AM CDT, etc.). If you have already checked the sunrise and sunset times in your local newspaper or from the climate page at your local National Weather Service Office, you would have found that by late last week, the sun should have been above the horizon for at least 12 hours at most locations. The effects of atmospheric refraction (bending of light rays by the varying density of the atmosphere) along with a relatively large diameter of the sun contribute to several additional minutes that the sun appears above the horizon at sunrise and sunset.
• Iditarod Race is completed --Early last Wednesday morning, Norway's Joar Ulsom crossed the finish line in Nome, AK to win the 2018 Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race with a time of 9 days, 13 hours and one minute. The race covered nearly 1000 miles from Anchorage to Nome. This race marked the first win by the Norway native who now resides in Willow, AK. He is the third Iditarod winner born outside the United States. [Fairbanks Daily News-Miner] Two mushers needed medical attention due to weather conditions.. [Fairbanks Daily News-Miner]
• IPCC celebrates its 30th anniversary -- During the last week, the 47th session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) opened in Paris with special ceremonial events held to celebrate the 30th anniversary of IPCC. These events are designed to highlight advances in climate science and fundamental changes in the climate system. The IPCC, a scientific and intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations, was initially created at the First World Climate Conference in February 1979. However, it was officially established in 1988 by two United Nations organizations, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) to provide recommendations based on current research. [World Meteorological Organization News]
• Update on Cherry Blossom Watch in Washington, DC -- With cold weather that spread across the Middle Atlantic States during the first two weeks of March, the National Park Service has updated its prediction of peak bloom for the Tidal Basin cherry trees at the beginning of last week, moving its forecast of peak bloom on its website to 27-31 March 2018.
  Observations made of the cherry and magnolia trees around Washington's Tidal Basin on this past Sunday morning indicate some buds appearing on the trees.
  The 2018 National Cherry Blossom Festival will run from Tuesday, 20 March through Sunday, 15 April 2018. This website also has a listing of the phenological observations for past bloom dates over the past 24 years. A graph of the occurrence of the dates of peak cherry blossom occurrence in Washington, DC beginning in 1921 and running through last year is also available.
• International observances -- Several days during this upcoming week have been designated as special days that are intended to focus public attention on the environment and earth science:
• "World Water Day" -- Thursday, 22 March 2018, has been designated by the United Nations (UN) as the annual World Water Day in order to focus on taking action to tackle the water crisis around the world. The theme for this year's World Water Day 2018 is "Nature for Water" -- exploring nature-based solutions to the water challenges humans face in the 21st century. [UN-Water]
  
• "World Meteorology Day" -- A celebration will be held on Friday, 23 March 2018, for World Meteorology Day. This day is designated to celebrate the anniversary of the establishment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on 23 March 1950. The WMO is an agency within the United Nations. This year's theme for World Meteorological Day 2018 is "Weather-ready, climate-smart." This theme has been chosen to highlight the need for the world's population to be prepared for a wide range of potentially hazardous extreme weather and climate events, such as tropical cyclones, heatwaves and drought, which appear to be increasing in intensity and frequency due to long-term climate change.
• Monitoring El Niño and La Niña -- Scientists recently announced that suggested that the weak La Niño event should transition into ENSO-neutral conditions during meteorological spring in the Northern Hemisphere. For more details on how to monitor these phenomena, please read this week's Supplemental Information.. In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

• Review of national weather and climate for February 2018 and the 2017-18 winter -- Based upon preliminary data, scientists at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) reported that the national average temperature for the contiguous United States during February 2018 was 35.4 degrees Fahrenheit, or approximately 1.6 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th-century (1901-2000) average. This temperature makes February the 41st warmest February since a comprehensive national climate network began in 1895. Most of the states to the east of the Mississippi River and across the Southwest reported statewide temperatures that were above to much above average, with 23 states running from Louisiana eastward and northward to Maine having statewide February average temperatures that were in the top 10 highest on record. Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas reported their highest temperatures on record in the Southeast, while Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island in New England had record high temperatures. On the other hand, seven states across the northern Plains and the interior Northwest had below average statewide temperatures, with Montana experiencing a February 2018 average temperature that was sixth lowest in the 124 years of records.
  In addition, the average maximum (or daytime) February 2018 temperature was the 40th highest in the 124 years of record for the month, with Florida registering a record high maximum February temperature. Furthermore, the average minimum (or nighttime) nationwide temperature for the month was also the 36th highest.
  The average temperature across the contiguous United States for the meteorological winter season (December 2017 through February 2018) was 35.9 degrees F, or 3.7 Fahrenheit degrees above the 20th century average, making the recently-concluded winter the 24th warmest winter since 1895. The six states in the southwestern quadrant of the nation had winter average temperatures that ranked within the top 10 highest on record. Several states across the Northwest and all states along the Eastern Seaboard had above average winter temperatures. Montana and Nebraska had below average 2017/2018 winter temperatures. The remainder of the states across the nation's midsection had temperatures that were close to average.
  Nationwide, February 2018 precipitation was 0.71 inches above the long-term (1901-2000) average, making last month the sixth wettest February in 124 years. Nearly half the states reported above to much above average statewide precipitation totals in February. Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Tennessee set record high statewide precipitation amounts for February, while ten other states had precipitation amounts that ranked within the top ten in 124 years. Conversely, below average statewide precipitation totals were reported along the West Coast, the Great Basin, the central Plains and the Carolinas.
  December 2017 through February 2018 precipitation across the 48 coterminous states was 0.53 inches below the 20th-century average, making this past winter the 34th driest winter on record. Seventeen states registered below to much below average winter precipitation, with California experiencing its second driest winter on record, followed by Nevada, Utah, Oregon and Kansas with precipitation totals that were in the driest dozen. States along the Southeastern Coast also had below average winter precipitation totals. On the other hand, states in the lower and mid-Mississippi Valleys and the Midwest had above average winter precipitation. Arkansas had its fourth wettest winter on record, while Montana had its eleventh wettest in 123 winters.
  Data analyzed by the Rutgers Global Snow Lab indicate the February snow cover extent across the contiguous US was the 20th largest February snow cover extent in the 52-year period of record using satellite observations.
  [State of the Climate NOAA/NCEI]
  NOTE: A description is provided of the climatological rankings employed by NCEI for their monthly and seasonal maps. [NOAA/NCEI]
• February national drought report -- The National Climate Data Center has posted its February 2018 drought report online. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index, approximately fifteen percent of the contiguous United States experienced severe to extreme drought conditions at the end of February, while seven percent of the area had severely to extremely wet conditions.
  
• Northeast U.S. pummeled by series of late winter nor'easters -- A meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center wrote an Event Tracker feature for the ClimateWatch Magazine that describes the sequence of three storms called "nor'easters" that pummeled the Northeastern United States from the last week of February through mid-March. These nor'easters are storms that frequently develop along the Middle Atlantic coast and travel to the northeast toward New England, preceded by winds from the northeast that can produce coastal flooding from the storm surge and high waves. These storms are often accompanied by abundant snowfall in interior sections of the Northeast. He also considered the possibility that these nor'easters could become more intense or more frequent over time because of a changing climate. [NOAA Climate.gov News]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

• The new GOES-S satellite becomes GOES-17 -- At the start of last week, the spacecraft that had been known as Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-S (GOES-S) when it was launched from Cape Canaveral, FL on Thursday, 1 March, finally achieved its geosynchronous orbit, which resulted in a name change to GOES-17. This name change follows a tradition that has been employed for decades. Following several months of testing, GOES-17 will be moved westward in its orbit to a position where it will provide a view of the Pacific Ocean and western North America as NOAA's GOES West satellite. [NOAA NESDIS News]
• New instrument on Space Station starts staring at the Sun -- After nearly three months of testing following its attachment to the International Space Station, the Total and Spectral solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS-1) became fully operational with all instruments collecting science data this month. TSIS-1 studies the total amount of energy emitted by the Sun using the Total Irradiance Monitor, one of two onboard sensors. This sensor extends a 40-year measurement of the Sun's total energy to Earth by satellite-borne sensors. The other onboard sensor, called the Spectral Irradiance Monitor, measures how the Sun's energy is distributed over the ultraviolet, visible and infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. [NASA Global Climate Change News]

CLIMATE FORCING

• Data from three satellites help create a simulated 3-D solar eruption -- Two physicists from George Mason University and Johns Hopkins University used data obtained by three satellites of two different coronal mass ejections (or CMEs) propagating from the Sun. These CME data were then used as input into their models to simulate the 3-D structure and trajectory of each CME. One of their models is called the "croissant" model for the shape of nascent shocks, while the other is the "ellipsoid" model for the shape of expanding shocks. The three spacecraft that were used: ESA/NASA's Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and NASA's twin Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) satellites. One CME erupted in March 2011 and the second, in February 2014. [NOAA News]
• North Atlantic Ocean is becoming less salty -- but is changing climate to blame? -- A team of researchers from Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Johns Hopkins University have found that salinity (amount of salt dissolved in water) in the North Atlantic Ocean has dropped dramatically over the last decade, as determined from data collected by a network of floating sensors. The salinity fell by as much as half a gram of salt per kilogram of seawater in the sub-polar North Atlantic that includes the Labrador Sea. The reduction in salinity would be equivalent to diluting this portion of the Arctic Ocean with 5000 cubic kilometers of freshwater. However, the researchers attribute the immediate cause for the salinity decline to changes in ocean circulation, as the sub-polar gyre, a large system of circulating currents delivering freshwater to the region, appears to be moving faster, propelled by stronger winds tied to the North Atlantic Oscillation climate pattern. One of the researchers claims that if climate change were causing the ocean freshening trend, that should become clear within the next decade. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

• New Seasonal Climate Outlooks released for spring -- Late last week forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their Three-Month (Seasonal) Climate Outlooks for the three-months running from April through June 2018, which contains the last two months of meteorological spring and the first month of meteorological summer. A two-and-a half-minute video is available with an overview of this CPC spring outlook provided by a CPC forecaster, Mike Halpert. [NOAA Climate.gov News] or [NOAA Media Release]
  Specific details include:
• Temperature and precipitation outlooks -- According to their temperature outlook, nearly three-quarters of the 48 contiguous United States should experience a high chance of above average spring and early summer temperatures. The greatest probabilities of such an occurrence extend from the Four Corners States (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah) eastward across the southern Plains to the Gulf Coast and northward across coastal sections of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Conversely, sections of the northern Rockies and northern Plains, centered on northern Montana appear to have a good chance for below average temperatures. Sections of the Pacific Northwest running eastward to the Upper Midwest were considered to have near equal chances of warmer or cooler than normal conditions.
  Their precipitation outlook calls for better than even chances of dry spring conditions for the southwestern quadrant of the nation, with the highest probabilities of dry conditions running from the coast of California eastward and southward across the Great Basin and southern Rockies to the Texas Gulf Coast. On the other hand, the northern and northeastern sections of the nation extending from the northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes should have above even chances for a wet spring and early summer. The rest of the coterminous states should have equal chances of below and above average spring precipitation, especially across the Southeast. Outlooks for April are also available. A summary of the prognostic discussion of the outlook for non-technical users is available from CPC. These forecasts were based in part that the current strong El Niño conditions should continue through at least meteorological spring (March through May) in the Northern Hemisphere before making a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions.
  
• Seasonal Drought Outlook released -- The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook was released for late March through June 2018 that indicates a persistence or expansion of drought conditions across the southwestern and southeastern sections of the nation. The current drought conditions should expand across the Southwest, running from southern California eastward across the Four Corners States to the central and southern Plains (Kansas southward into Texas). In the Southeast, sections of Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina should continue to experience drought. In addition, drought should continue across central and eastern Oregon in the interior Northwest. The forecasters foresee an improvement in the conditions that could eliminate the drought across the Dakotas in the northern Plains. Note: a Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion is included describing the forecasters' confidence.
• Spring flood outlook for nation -- Forecasters with the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Information Center issued their National Hydrologic Assessment for Spring 2018 that includes minor to moderate flooding across the nation's midsection, primarily along the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, along with the Illinois River, and the lower Ohio and Missouri Rivers, which are all tributaries to the Mississippi. Late winter rains on saturated soils along with snow melt have enhanced the flooding risk through the upcoming season. [National Weather Service's Office of Hydrologic Development]
• A mere half-Celsius degree increase in temperature could flood 5 million more people -- Researchers at Princeton, Rutgers and Tufts Universities, the independent scientific organization Climate Central, and ICF International warn that the small difference between an increase of 1.5 and 2.0 Celsius degrees by 2150 would mean the permanent inundation of lands currently home to about 5 million people, including 60,000 who live on small island nations. The team employed a global network of tide gauges and a local sea level projection framework to explore differences in the frequency of storm surges and other extreme sea-level events across three scenarios involving global temperature increases of 1.5, 2.0 and 2.5 Celsius degrees. [Princeton University News]

CLIMATE AND HUMAN HEALTH

• Space radiation is becoming more hazardous -- Research from the University of New Hampshire's Space Science Center warns that the exposure to radiation associated with cosmic rays from space appears to be much higher than previously thought and this radiation could have serious implications on both astronauts and satellite technology. Large fluxes in Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR) were found to be rising rapidly and could exceed any other recorded time in the space age. One of the most significant Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events occurred in September 2017, releasing large doses of radiation that could pose significant risk to both humans and satellites. [University of New Hampshire News]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

• Skillful drought and food security forecasts could save lives -- A multidisciplinary team from the University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB), the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), Johns Hopkins University and NOAA has been able to deliver skillful predictions of both drought and famine that have helped reduce the effects of food insecurity around the world. The climatologists from UCSB's Climate Hazards Group have been studying the relationships between these droughts and exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern and western Pacific Ocean. [University of California Santa Barbara News]
• NOAA Research accomplishments during 2017 are highlighted -- NOAA recently released its "2017 NOAA Science Report" that presents the agency's research portfolio logic model and highlights a selection of NOAA's Research and Development (R&D) accomplishments during this past year. Some of these accomplishments include a new weather prediction model called the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) that will dramatically improve U.S. operational weather and hurricane forecasting; advances in precision navigation; improved storm surge planning; better toxin detection for harmful algal blooms; and the use of new technology for exploring the Arctic. All six NOAA line offices (National Marine Fisheries, National Ocean Service, National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service, Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research, National Weather Service and Office of Marine and Aviation Operations) provided unique contributions to NOAA R&D according to their missions. [NOAA Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research News]
• Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com]

Concept of the Week: Seawater Salinity and Carbon Dioxide

The contemporary concern regarding global climate change has caused scientists to study the various factors that govern the ocean's ability to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide. Concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, are on the rise primarily because of increased burning of fossil fuels. Higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide may be contributing to increased global temperatures, a condition often identified as global warming. The ocean's role in regulating the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on the temperature, salinity, and biological components of surface waters.

Studies show that the ocean's ability to absorb carbon dioxide is primarily temperature dependent. As noted in Chapter 8 of your textbook, gases are more soluble in cold seawater than warm seawater. Hence, changes in sea surface temperature affect the ability of the ocean to absorb carbon dioxide. We also found in Chapter 1, photosynthetic organisms assimilate carbon dioxide and release oxygen. Through cellular respiration, all organisms release carbon dioxide. Therefore, biological activity affects the ocean's ability to absorption of atmospheric carbon dioxide.

What about the effects of changes in salinity on the ocean's uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide? Research from the Pacific Ocean near Hawaii provides some insight on this question. For nearly 20 years, scientists have been collecting physical, chemical and biological data through a large column of ocean water at Station ALOHA, a sampling site about 100 km (62 mi) north of Oahu that appears representative of oceanic conditions in the central North Pacific. In 2003, David M. Karl, a biogeochemist at the University of Hawaii in Honolulu, reported a decline in the rate at which surface ocean waters were absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. In 2001, the rate of carbon dioxide uptake was only about 15% of the rate in 1989. Why the change in carbon dioxide uptake? In this region of the Pacific north of Hawaii, sea surface temperatures showed no significant change during the period of observation, but precipitation decreased and evaporation increased. Less precipitation associated with drought coupled with higher rates of evaporation caused the surface water salinity at ALOHA to increase by about 1%. Increasing salinity inhibits water's ability to absorb gases including carbon dioxide. Karl and his colleagues attribute 40% of the decline in the ocean's carbon dioxide uptake to the saltier waters. The balance of the decline may be due to changes in biological productivity or ocean mixing.

Projected changes in global climate indicate significant changes in precipitation around the globe including reduced precipitation over various large areas of the oceans, resulting in potential "drought" conditions. Since changes in oceanic salinity result from changes in precipitation, the contribution that salinity plays on future assimilation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the ocean also becomes an important consideration.

Historical Events:

• 19 March 1950...Timberline Lodge on Mount Hood reported 246 inches of snow on the ground, a record for the state of Oregon. (The Weather Channel)
• 19 March 1964...Up to 39 inches of snow fell at Cape Whittle for Quebec's greatest one-day snow total. (The Weather Doctor)
• 20-21 March 1948...Juneau, AK received 31.0 inches of snow, to set a 24-hour snowfall record for Alaska's capital. This snowfall record pales compared to the state's 24-hour snowfall record of 62.0 inches set at Thompson Pass on 28-29 December 1955. (Accord's Weather Guide Calendar)
• 20 March 1986...A wind gust of 173 mph was recorded in the Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland, the highest ever recorded in the United Kingdom. (The Weather Doctor)
• 21 March 1951...Antarctica is the windiest place in the world. Port Martin averages 40-mph winds throughout the year. On this day, the winds averaged 108 mph. (National Weather Service files)
• 22 March 1888...The morning's low temperature at Chicago, IL dipped to one degree below zero, the latest sub-zero Fahrenheit reading in the Windy City's history. This record still stands today. (The Weather Doctor)
• 23 March 1899...A whopping 141 inches of snow fell on Ruby, CO between the 23rd and 30th to establish the state record for greatest snowfall from a single storm at the time. (National Weather Service files)
• 23 March 1907...Today was the warmest March day ever recorded in Washington, DC with a maximum temperature of 93 degrees. The nation's capital has seen three 90-degree days in March, all of which occurred in 1907. (National Weather Service files)
  
• 23 March 1912...Residents of Kansas City, MO began to dig out from a storm that produced 25 inches of snow in 24 hours . The snowfall total was nearly twice that of any other storm of modern record in Kansas City before or since that time. A record 40 inches of snow fell during the month of March that year, and the total for the winter season of 67 inches was also a record. By late February of that year, Kansas City had received just six inches of snow. Olathe, KS received 37 inches of snow in the snowstorm, establishing a single storm record for the state of Kansas. (23rd-24th) (Intellicast) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac) (The Weather Channel)
• 24 March 1993...What was to be called "the winter of the return of the big snows" continued to set records. Boston, MA had 8.6 inches of snow on this day to push its monthly total to 38.9 inches that set a new March monthly snowfall record. The old record was 33.0 inches set in 1916. Boston's seasonal snowfall total now stood at 81.7 inches, the third snowiest winter season on record. (Intellicast)
• 25 March 1914...Society Hill, SC was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
• 25 March 1975...The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel)

Return to RealTime Climate Portal

Prepared by Edward J. Hopkins, Ph.D., email hopkins@aos.wisc.edu
© Copyright, 2018, The American Meteorological Society.