WEEKLY CLIMATE NEWS

DataStreme ECS WEEK 9: 4-8 November 2013

ITEMS OF INTEREST

President issues steps to help nation prepare for impacts of climate change -- Last Friday, President Obama issued an executive order designed to undertake actions to enhance the nation's preparedness and resilience to climate change. In his executive order, he directed federal agencies to make assist states and communities in building resilience against storms, droughts and other weather extremes. A high-level task force of state and local leaders was to be created that would offer advice to the federal government. [New York Times] The Executive Order is available in full. [The White House]
Time change does not affect climate records -- Daylight Saving Time ended this past Sunday morning across essentially the entire nation -- the exceptions include Arizona, Hawaii, Puerto Rico and about 18 counties in Indiana. These changes have been mandated by the U.S. Congress in the Energy Policy Act of 2005, which extended Daylight Saving Time across the nation, with the start on the second Sunday in March (10 March 2013) and end on the first Sunday in November (3 November 2013). Most of Canada also observes changes to Daylight Saving Time at the same time [National Research Council Canada]. In other words, following the old adage of "spring ahead, fall behind", you will need to turn your clocks ahead by one hour to conform with the local time observance. Next spring, Daylight Saving Time will start on Sunday morning, 9 March 2014.
What does this time change mean to you (other than earlier sunsets)? Contrary to a popular belief that has surfaced at times, the change from Standard to Daylight Saving Time does not add an extra hour of daylight to the day nor does it affect climate record keeping. The daily high and low temperatures, along with the 24-hour precipitation taken by essentially all stations across the nation are based upon local Standard time, not Daylight time. Therefore, the daily entries in the Preliminary Local Climate Data (CF6) for any of the more than 200 cities around the nation will remain on Standard time throughout the year. The daily climate data collected at those automatic weather stations operated by the National Weather Service and the Federal Aviation Administration, together with all the cooperative weather observing stations around the nation are always made according to local standard time. NOTE: You may check the correct current official time at http://www.time.gov/.
Participate in "Unique Perspectives" Photo and Video Contest -- NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission invites the public to submit their photos and videos of precipitation from unique perspectives before the end of November 2013. These photos and videos will be posted on the NASA Precipitation Measurement Missions websites. [NOAA News]
Free admission into the National Parks -- Next weekend (9-11 November 2013) has been designated by the National Park Service as fee-free days in honor of the Veterans Day Weekend. This fee waiver will cover entrance and commercial tour fees in many of the national parks and monuments administered by the Park Service. [National Park Service Fee Free Days] In addition, the US Forest Service will waive recreation fees in the national forests over the weekend. [US Forest Service News Release]
Reconstructing past climates -- Scientists from many disciplines have developed a variety of methods that use proxy indicators such as tree rings, ice cores and ocean cores to reconstruct past climates, some extending back thousands of years. For more details on paleoclimatology, or the study of past climates, and available data sets, please read this week's Supplemental Information...In Greater Depth.

CURRENT CLIMATE STATUS

Monitoring fall colors across Pennsylvania from space --Two images of the land cover over the mountains of central Pennsylvania obtained from the MODIS sensor on NASA's Aqua satellite slightly more than one month apart show the progression of fall coloration in the deciduous forests covering the region. The first image made in mid-September shows summer green, while the second image in late October shows a variety of reds, yellows, and browns. [NASA Earth Observatory]

CURRENT CLIMATE MONITORING

Monitoring national water supplies over a decade from space -- A national map depicting the rate of change in freshwater storage per year over the decade running from 2003 to 2013 was made from data collected from NASA's twin GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellites. The data indicates a decrease in groundwater supplies in California's Central Valley and across the southern high Plains. Sections of the Southeast also experienced a decrease in ground water over the decade. On the other hand, increases in ground water storage have been detected over the upper Missouri Valley. [NASA Earth Observatory]
Airborne campaign commences to map Greenland Ice Sheet summer melt -- A 17-day NASA airborne campaign started late last week in Greenland that would make measurements of that island's ice sheet following this past summer's melt. The Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS) would be flown aboard NASA's new C-130 aircraft to measure changes in the height of the Greenland Ice Sheet and surrounding Arctic sea ice. The goal of this mission is to improve scientists' understanding of seasonal melt and provide baseline measurements for future satellite missions, such as NASA's ICESat-2 mission scheduled for launch in 2016. [NASA]
New climate-studying imager taken for a high-altitude balloon ride -- At the end of this past September, the HyperSpectral Imager for Climate Science (HySICS) was sent aloft to an altitude of nearly122,000 feet on its inaugural engineering balloon flight from Fort Sumner, NM. The HySICS, which was developed at the University of Colorado, is a new-generation instrument that is designed to measure reflected solar radiance, or the amount of outgoing sunlight energy scattered from Earth's surface and atmosphere with greater precision. Ultimately, this instrument may be placed onboard a future satellite. Monitoring these solar radiances over time would help in assessing long-term changes in climate. Data collected during this first balloon flight are currently being analyzed. [NASA Earth Science Technology Office]
Inexpensive new device will watch surface winds from Space Station -- NASA scientists have assembled the ISS-RapidScat instrument (standing for International Space Station-Rapid Scatterometer) that will measure ocean surface wind speed and direction from the International Space Station following launch in 2014. This instrument, which is to be installed on the end of the station's Columbus laboratory, is meant to help improve storm and hurricane monitoring over the oceans and, ultimately, weather and marine forecasts. Improvement is anticipated in the understanding of how interactions between Earth's ocean and atmosphere influence global climate. The ISS-RapidScat instrument is a scatterometer similar to those used on NASA's SeaSat satellite in 1978 and its QuikScat satellite in 1999. [NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory]
New primary instrument cleared for installation on new environmental geosynchronous satellite -- Recently, the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) has been cleared to be installed as the key instrument onboard the NOAA's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite – R (GOES-R) spacecraft, the agency's next-generation of satellites that is scheduled to be placed in geosynchronous orbit in early 2016. The ABI is designed for more rapid scanning with greater detail of Earth's weather, oceans, and environment. Scans will either be in full disk image mode or in flex mode for greater detail. The data collected from the ABI should permit introduction of new forecast products for severe weather, volcanic ash advisories, fire and smoke monitoring and other hazards. In addition to ABI, the GOES-R Series satellites also will have improved lightning detection and solar weather monitoring tools that will provide near real time data to forecasters during severe weather events. [NOAA News]
An All-Hazards Monitor -- This Web portal provides the user information from NOAA on current environmental events that may pose as hazards such as tropical weather, fire weather, marine weather, severe weather, drought and floods. [ NOAAWatch]

CLIMATE AND THE BIOSPHERE

Coral reefs may adapt to moderate climate change -- A study conducted by NOAA scientists and their colleagues from academia indicates that some corals from around the world appear to be adapting to moderate increases in global temperature. However, the question remains concerning the ability of the coral to adapt quickly to keep pace with projected increases in temperature due to human activity, especially associated with the burning of fossil fuels. [NOAA News]

CLIMATE FORECASTS

Salt Lake City's water supply challenged by rising temperatures -- Researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the University of Colorado, the University of Utah, NOAA and Salt Lake City's public works department warn that temperature increases across the watersheds surrounding Utah's capital city would result in a significant drop in the annual flow of streams on the western side of the Wasatch Mountains that provide usable fresh water to the city. The research team relied on historical data analysis, NOAA streamflow forecasting models and climate model projections of temperature and precipitation in the area, along with a detailed understanding of the region. [NCAR/UCAR AtmosNews]
Longer-term forecasts of US heat waves may be possible -- Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and their colleagues believe that they have been able to identify a distinctive wave pattern in the winds in the upper troposphere above the Northern Hemisphere that could foretell the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States more than two weeks in advance. While analyzing a 12,000 year computer simulation of the atmospheric circulation over the Northern Hemisphere on the NCAR Community Earth System Model, the researchers discerned a distinct "wavenumber-5" pattern emerged with five ridges and troughs in the flow encircling the midlatitudes that would ultimately evolve into a major summertime heat wave across the US. They believe that the appearance of this pattern at least two weeks prior to a heat wave could provide the public more time to prepare for these potentially deadly events. [NCAR/UCAR AtmosNews]
Canadian national seasonal outlook issued -- Forecasters with Environment Canada issued their outlooks for temperature and precipitation across Canada for November 2013 through January 2013, which represents the last month of meteorological autumn and the first two months of meteorological winter. The temperature outlook indicates that southwestern Canada, primarily extending across British Columbia and Alberta could experience below normal (1981-2010) temperatures for these three months. On the other hand, northern sections of the Yukon Territory and several of the Maritime Provinces could have above average temperatures. Elsewhere, a large section of Canada should have near normal temperatures for the end of autumn and the beginning of winter. Only few scattered areas across northern Canada would expected to have below normal summer temperatures.
The Canadian precipitation outlook for late autumn 2013 and the start of the 2013-14 winter season indicates that scattered areas of below average precipitation across coastal sections of western Canada, the lower St. Lawrence Valley in eastern Quebec and New Brunswick, and across sections of the Arctic, including Nunavut and Baffin Island. a wide area of central Canada, extending from coastal British Columbia eastward to northern Quebec. Likewise, areas of projected above normal precipitation for these three months were widely scattered across the northern Yukon Territory, the central Prairie Provinces, the region over the eastern Great Lakes and sections of the Maritime Provinces.
[Note for comparisons and continuity with the three-month seasonal outlooks of temperature and precipitation generated for the continental United States and Alaska by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, one would need to use Environment Canada's probabilistic forecasts for temperature and precipitation.]

CLIMATE FORCING

Increased summer rains across northwestern Europe possibly linked to melting Arctic sea ice -- Scientists at the United Kingdom's University of Exeter scientists document a link between the loss of Arctic Sea Ice and a southward displacement of the Polar Jet Stream in the upper troposphere over northwestern Europe. This southward displacement in the jet stream could result in much wetter summers than typical across the British Islands and northwest Europe, as has been evident in the summers between 2007 and 2012. They based their findings upon computer simulations of melting Arctic sea ice and upper tropospheric atmospheric circulation patterns. [University of Exeter]

PALEOCLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION

A view of a warming planet as viewed from the deep ocean -- A team of scientists from Columbia University, Rutgers University and Woods Hole Institution of Oceanography have used sediment cores extracted from the bottom sediments in the waters off Indonesia to trace the heat content of the Pacific Ocean over the past 10,000 years by determining water temperature from the chemical composition of the shells of tiny single-celled, bottom-dwelling foraminifera. They determined that the intermediate waters of the Pacific Ocean are absorbing heat 15 times faster over the past 60 years than in the past 10,000 years. This absorption of heat into the ocean may explain the nearly negligible increases in global atmospheric temperature of the last decade. [The Earth Institute at Columbia University] or [Rutgers University Today]

CLIMATE AND SOCIETY

Vital rains could be reduced by geoengineering the climate -- In an international study, led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), increasing global temperatures caused by massive increases in greenhouse gases would increase precipitation around the world by a nearly 7 percent average increase over preindustrial precipitation levels. However, the researchers warn that "geoengineering" techniques designed to resolve increased temperatures could result drops in monsoonal rains in North America, East Asia, and other regions by 5-7 percent compared to preindustrial conditions. Furthermore, this geoengineering could result in a decrease in globally averaged precipitation by approximately 4.5 percent. [NCAR/UCAR AtmosNews]
Earthweek -- Diary of the Planet [earthweek.com] Requires Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Concept of the Week: Extending the Historical North American Drought Record

Through history, drought has been a major concern for many people as the lack of adequate water can adversely affect agriculture, and in the extreme case, the availability of potable (drinkable) water. The Case in Point for Chapter 9 describes the migration of ancient peoples across the semiarid Southwest due to what may have been major drought conditions. During the last century, the "Dust Bowl" era drought in the 1930s created many problems in this country. The effects of this seven-year long drought were made worse by poor agricultural techniques and land management. The effect of the drought on the nation was also exacerbated by the coincident Great Depression. Drought remains a problem today across Texas and the West Coast as we can see from inspection of the current weekly US National Drought Monitor produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center.

How do the current drought events compare with earlier droughts? A time series of computed Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values began in 1895 when a sufficiently dense climate network was established. During the 20th century, several episodes of drought have had a major national impact. The exceptional drought that developed in the early 1930s extended across much of the nation resulting in the "Dust Bowl" era. The PDSI time series shows that the 1930s drought was the worst in the last century, with nearly 80 percent of the nation experiencing moderate to extreme drought in 1934. During the 1950s, the southern Plains and the Southwest also experienced a major drought, when 50 to 60 percent of the nation was under drought conditions.

What about farther back in history? Sophisticated tree-ring analysis techniques allow researchers to extend the drought record across a large section of North America farther into the past. In 1998, Edward R. Cook at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory along with colleagues at Arizona and Arkansas reconstructed past drought conditions across the nation based upon annual tree-ring data obtained from a network of 388 climatically sensitive tree-ring sites. From these data, time series of annual summertime (June-August) PDSI values were determined back to 1700 at 155 grid points across the nation. These gridded tree-ring chronologies were calibrated with PDSI chronologies generated by instrumental records at selected Historical Climate Network stations commencing in the late 19th century. The researchers found that the 1930s drought was the most severe drought to hit the nation since 1700.

By 2004, the series was expanded to 835 tree-ring sites, primarily across the West, where exactly dated annual tree-ring chronologies were obtained. The new grid covered most of North America with a latitude-longitude spacing of 2.5 degrees. In addition to the 286 grid point PDSI time series, annual contour maps of PDSI were constructed that span much of the continent. This work permitted extension of the spatial and temporal coverage of the drought reconstruction not only into Canada and Mexico, but back 2000 years. From this more recent data set they produced an online "North American Drought Atlas." They found several "megadroughts" in North America were even more severe than the 1930s drought. In addition to being more severe, some droughts extended over several decades, considerably longer than those of the 20th century. One such megadrought was in the 16th century, an event that along with another megadrought into the early 17th century has been implicated by some researchers in the hardships encountered by British settlers in the Virginia area, such as the disappearance of the Roanoke Colony.

Concept of the Week: Questions

(Place your responses on the Chapter Progress Response Form provided in the Study Guide.)

The 1930's Dust Bowl era drought [(does), (does not)] appear to be the most intense across the nation of any in the last two thousand years.
The "North American Drought Atlas" is based on 835 sites where trees in climatically sensitive areas produce [(monthly),(annual),(biennial)] growth rings.

Historical Events:

4 November 1983...The temperature at Billings, MT soared to 77 degrees, a new record for the data and month. (Intellicast)
4-5 November 1966...The River Arno surged above flood stage and caused irreparable damage to much of the architectural and art treasure of Florence, Italy. Millions of historical library volumes were either damaged or destroyed. More than 15,000 vehicles were also destroyed. Roughly two-thirds of Florence was flooded, 113 people died and 30,000 were made homeless by the flooding on both the Arno and Po rivers. (Accord Weather Calendar) (Wikipedia)
5 November 1977...A slow moving storm produced five to nine inch rains across northern Georgia causing the Toccoa Dam to burst. As the earthen dam collapsed, the waters rushed through the Toccoa Falls Bible College killing three persons in the dorms. Thirty-eight persons perished at a trailer park along the stream. Eighteen bridges were washed out in Madison County. (David Ludlum)
5 November 1987...Heavy rains in California's Death Valley National Park washed out many park roads. As much as 1.20 in. of rain fell at Scotty's Castle, compared with the annual rainfall average of 2.28 in. Up to 8000 people attending a recreational encampment were stranded. (Accord Weather Calendar)
5 November 1991...Elkins, WV dropped to 8 degrees, the coldest so early in the season. Pittsburgh, PA dropped to 11 degrees also the coldest so early. Jackson, KY fell to 17 degrees, a daily record. (Intellicast)
6 November 1988...A powerful low-pressure system over the Great Lakes Region continued to produce snow across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Region. Snowfall totals along the shore of Lake Superior reached 24 inches, with three feet of snow reported in the Porcupine Mountain area of Upper Michigan. Marquette, MI established a November record with 17.3 inches of snow in 24 hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
6 November 1989...Unseasonably warm weather prevailed in the south central and southeastern U.S. The high temperature of 89 degrees at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport in Texas equaled their record for November. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
6 November 1994...Downtown San Francisco, CA was drenched with 6.19 inches of rain in 24 hours to set an all-time record for the city.
7 November 1986...Temperatures reached a daily record 86 degrees at New Orleans, LA, equaling the highest ever for November. (Storm Data) (Intellicast)
8 November 1914...On this date the longest "official" rain-free time span on record for the U.S. of 767 days ended in Bagdad, CA. Some meteorologists question the accuracy of this record kept by railroad employees at that time. (Accord Weather Guide Calendar)
8 November 1966...The temperature in downtown San Francisco reached a November record of 86 degrees. (The Weather Channel)
8 November 1991...The first week of November ended in Iowa with the average temperature for the state of 18.3 degrees, a full 24.7 degrees below normal. Easily this was the coldest first week of November ever. (Intellicast)
8 November 1999...The temperature reached 89 degrees at Kennebec, South Dakota, breaking the all time record for the warmest November maximum temperature ever recorded in the state. (The Weather Doctor)
9 November 1913...The "Freshwater Fury", a rapidly deepening cyclone, caused unpredicted gales on the Great Lakes. Cleveland, OH reported 17.4 inches of snow in 24 hours, and a total of 22.2 inches, both all-time records for that location. During the storm, winds at Cleveland averaged 50 mph, with gusts to 79 mph. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

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